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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.