‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's Kitchen Fuel Stock.
The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now impacting India's homes.
As military actions on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of kitchen fuel are shrinking across India, pushing restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.
Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most food outlets run either on commercial LPG cylinders or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are turning to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."
Localized Effects
In a western metro, accounts say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have depleted with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers observe a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.
Official Position
Yet, the officials insists there is sufficient stock.
India has more than 30 crore household consumers and spokespersons say cylinders are being prioritized to households as tensions from the regional hostilities affect energy markets.
About 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the conflict.
The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".
"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been caused by false reports. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.
According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.
India imports almost all of its oil. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.
Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on shipping data and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The primary concern is cooking gas, experts note.
India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.
Refineries can tweak operations to produce a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.
In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of hoarding.
An industry representative states exploitative practices.
"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."
For now, India's energy imports may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next gas canister.
